Simulation and Forecast of When the 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown Ends
- Amir Bagherpour
- Oct 25, 2025
- 2 min read
Several people asked in early October 2025 about forecasting/simulating when and how the U.S. government shutdown ends.
On October 25th (18 days in advance), using foundational statistics, agent-based modeling, and agentic AI—without any insider information— as I forecast and simulate the median end date of the U.S. government shutdown as November 12th, 2025, as evident below. Check it out the forecast and simulation accuracy.
Core Experiment: Simulation / Forecast completed Oct 25, 2025 -- Can foundational statistics + agent-based modeling + agentic AI (multiple coordinated inference agents) accurately forecast and understand complex events using only public information? This is an exploration of the frontier between data science, AI reasoning, and forecasting of events.
In this experiment I have zero inside information - only public polling data, historical precedents from past shutdowns, prediction market signals, and multi-agent inference systems coordinating to analyze complex political dynamics.
Key Results (5,000 simulated pathways + statistical inference + inference from agents)
Median End Date: November 12 (Day 42)
High Probability Window: Nov 12-20 (Days 42-50)
80% Range: Oct 31 - Nov 20 (Days 31-50)
Avg Economic Cost: $86.7B
Critical Insight: Pressure
November:
Nov 1st: ACA / SNAP enrollment crisis (reduces ACA/SNAP enrollment-- hits blue states hardest).
Nov 10: Medicare enrollment / payment crisis (hits blue and red states equally hard)
Nov 15: Treasury stress panics Wall Street -- Debt ceiling 30X away, reserve currency status threatened
Nov 20: Holiday travel chaos, limited TSA and FAA Staff = universal pain
Watch the video for in-depth analysis of when and how this shutdown will likely end, including detailed breakdowns of Medicare payment failures, Treasury market dynamics, and the game theory of the dynamics.
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