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Amir Bagherpour
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AI & Analytics Leader
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Join date: Mar 11, 2025
Posts (9)
Dec 1, 2025 ∙ 10 min
2026 Federal Reserve Rate Policy Forecast
Five-Model Econometric Ensemble with Institutional Triangulation December 1, 2025 Forecast Period: Calendar Year 2026 Quantitative Analysis CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT This analysis is conducted as of December 1, 2025. The December 2025 FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 17-18, 2025. The baseline scenario assumes the FOMC will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, bringing the federal funds rate from 3.875% to 3.625%. All 2026 forecasts are predicated on this assumption and...
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Oct 25, 2025 ∙ 2 min
Simulation and Forecast of When the 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown Ends
Several people asked in early October 2025 about forecasting/simulating when and how the U.S. government shutdown ends. On October 25th (18 days in advance), using foundational statistics, agent-based modeling, and agentic AI—without any insider information— as I forecast and simulate the median end date of the U.S. government shutdown as November 12th, 2025, as evident below. Check it out the forecast and simulation accuracy. Core Experiment: Simulation / Forecast completed Oct 25, 2025 --...
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Jul 19, 2025 ∙ 11 min
Global AI Leadership: Indexed Forecasting Models and Simulations Reveal a Significant Digital Divide
Key Findings: The US leads by a thin margin over China (101.4 vs 99.6) in AI capabilities, representing the closest competitive gap at...
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