Amir Bagherpour

Five-Model Econometric Ensemble with Institutional Triangulation December 1, 2025 Forecast Period: Calendar Year 2026 Quantitative Analysis CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT This analysis is conducted as of December 1, 2025. The December 2025 FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 17-18, 2025. The baseline scenario assumes the FOMC will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, bringing the federal funds rate from 3.875% to 3.625%. All 2026 forecasts are predicated on this assumption and...

Several people asked in early October 2025 about forecasting/simulating when and how the U.S. government shutdown ends.   On October 25th (18 days in advance), using foundational statistics, agent-based modeling, and agentic AI—without any insider information— as I forecast and simulate the median end date of the U.S. government shutdown as November 12th, 2025, as evident below. Check it out the forecast and simulation accuracy. Core Experiment: Simulation / Forecast completed Oct 25, 2025 --...

Key Findings: The US leads by a thin margin  over China (101.4 vs 99.6) in AI capabilities, representing the closest competitive gap at...